It isn't easy imagining a post-AGI world. None of us are ready for it. Hundreds of thousands of workers will rapidly be replaced by intelligences that work faster, harder, and don't make mistakes.

So why do you think your job will survive?

I think it's understandable to not want your job to be automated. Especially if you spent the time and money getting a role-relevant degree. But we have to be honest... is your job so special that it can't be done by AI? For most people, I think the answer is no.

Just about anything that could be done by someone sitting at a computer could be automated. SWE, obviously (the first to go, in my mind). Anyone that primarily deals in spreadsheets (say hi to Claude). Teachers (if the human element isn't that important to you). Doctors (surgeons probably get a few more years). Lawyers (who'd be able to stop a lawyer who knew everything?). A lot can be done.

I find that people who think they'll come out unscathed usually fall into roughly 3 categories:

  1. People who don't believe in AGI
  2. People who believe in AGI that (somehow) plateaus right before being capable of doing their job
  3. People who believe that AGI will be used to help workers, not replace them

People who don't believe in AGI

I was probably in this camp a year ago. Years of movies and books has turned the concept of an AGI into something like elves or time travel. It just can't happen! Right? Kinda wrong (I want to write something about reward hacking later, so I'll elaborate on my "kinda" whenever that's out).

Arguments against capabilities fall time and time again. Billions of dollars are poured into this industry all the time. Do you think investors want to waste so much money on a useless product? For this long? I don't think so.

People who believe in AGI that (somehow) plateaus right before being capable of doing their job

This is really just wishful thinking. Everyone likes to imagine that they'll be different and make it out on top. This is a little different than flat-out not believing in AGI as they might believe that most other jobs will be automated.

I've already talked about capabilities here. What's so special about your job?

People who believe that AGI will be used to help workers, not replace them

(There's a more valid pseudo-subset of these people who don't believe in AGI, but do believe in AI being useful at work. We're sorta in that phase currently, so I don't have a problem with them.)

Probably the most used pro-AI development argument ever. "AI won't replace us, we'll use it as a tool! Figure out how to use AI or you're NGMI!!!"

How is this supposed to work in practice? We develop incredible AI that thinks more than a thousand times faster than us, works 24/7, and never has a problem with working... and we just keep working? We "manage" them? What's the incentive? Do companies just want to keep us around as friends and sacrifice increased profits? I doubt it.

My stance is that we're rapidly (as in, probably in the next five years) approaching AGI.

We need to prepare.